But Do They Matter?

By Scott Lemieux

Tonight is the first debate between the vice presidential candidates, and for those of you interested in the campaign, it will generate a considerable amount of anticipation. Given that it will be a contest between two gifted but gaffe-prone politicians -- one of whom has almost no experience in national office -- the debate has a good chance of being entertaining. And it may even tell us something about the substantive views of the candidates (although given the practices of modern moderators, this isn't always a safe bet.) 

So I suspect (and hope) that many of you will be watching.   This debate, and the above considerations, force me to be the curmudgeonly political scientist asking, how much will it matter?  After-the-fact narratives tend to see moments in presidential debates (such as Michael Dukakis' allegedly unemotional response in the 1988 debate to a question of how his wife being raped and killed would affect his position on the death penalty, or George H.W. Bush glancing at his watch in the 1992 debate) as major turning points.   

But data suggests that most in elections -- including those in 1988 and 1992 -- the debates have very little effect on the outcome.   Only in a few elections, which were so close that even small factors could affect the outcome, have debates even (arguably) mattered.    And, of course, if presidential debates don't have a great impact, vice presidential debates are likely to be even less consequential.    Remember the most famous moment in a vice presidential debate in the last two decades:

Not only did this occur in 1988 -- where debates had little discernible effect on the outcome -- but Dan Quayle's ticket won in a landslide, despite Lloyd Bentsen's famous "zinger."   

And at the vice presidential level, the exaggerated importance of debates has to be combined with the fact that, according to most political science research, vice presidential picks (especially those that don't hail from a "swing state" where the outcome of the election is likely to be close) have very little impact on election results.   There are likely to be a lot of theories developed about the performances of Biden and Palin, but -- barring something truly extraordinary -- tonight's debate is unlikely to have much impact on the election.   

Which isn't to say that it won't be fun to watch if you're interested in the outcome of the election!