Election Day

By Scott Lemieux

It's the big day in American politics!   If you want to get a sense of what public opinion surveys are saying about the election, you can check out aggregations of polls at FiveThirtyEight, Pollster, RealClearPolitics, and ElectoralVote.com.   There are differences among the polls, not because some major pollsters are incompetent, but because election polls require making assumptions about things that are unknowable.   In particular, we can quite accurately determine how a population as a whole will vote, but a great deal depends on who turns out to vote.   Pollsters see the election outcome differently because they make different assumptions about who will vote, but there's no way to know this for sure in advance.   In addition, the Presidential election is determined not by the national popular vote, but by the electoral college. State polls are generally more volatile and less reliable than national polls, so figuring out who will win a close state is more difficult. 

At any rate, it will be interesting to see what happens, as always!   We will be back to analyze the results.

Comments

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