Special elections and incumbency advantage

By David Watkins

Always check your facts. Two days ago, in post about Senate vacancies, I wrote:

Setting aside the ethics and the law for a moment, Blagojevich is certainly correct about one thing--the senate seat he has the power to appoint is a valuable commodity indeed. It's just for two years, initially, but as all students of American politics know, incumbency advantage is a powerful thing, and his appointee, as a Democrat, would have a particularly strong advantage in Illinois, an overwhelmingly Democratic state.

I think two central claims here are accurate. First, the Democratic candidate in a 2010 election will hold an advantage in Illinois, and second, that the power to appoint a senator for two years is indeed a powerful thing. But it turns out the statement in bold, while generally accurate in American politics, may be somewhat misleading in this context. Nate Silver, who runs an excellent blog about politics and elections called fivethirtyeight.com, took a look at the last 49 Senators appointed by Governors to a vacated seat. Here is what he found:

Of those 49 senators, only 19 -- fewer than 40 percent -- won their subsequent special election. Meanwhile:

* 13 of the 49 (27%) ran for office, but were defeated in the general election;
* 7 of the 49 (14%) ran for office, but were defeated in the primary;
* 10 of the 49 (20%) chose not to seek a permanent term (including one who was prohibited by state law from doing so).

At first glance, incumbency advantage isn't apparent here at all--only 19/39, less than half, who sought reelection, managed to win. How might we explain this? Nate Silver has some further thoughts on this that are worth reading. Two (interrelated) reasons seem worth highlighting. First, many of the appointed Senators have been appointed due to their personal connections--they have wives, children, and college roommates of other powerful politicians. They got there for reasons that have little to do with the preferences of that state's electorate. Secondly, we have to think conceptually about incumbent advantage. One reason incumbents have an advantage is that they're good at winning. How do we know? They've already done it at least once in this constituency. We don't know if appointed Senators know how to win in a statewide race or not.

Comments

[taobao shop]

He is a good friend that speaks well of us behind our backs.
*_*

[writers job]

the special election will help a lot. go for that!