By Scott Lemieux
The confirmation hearings for Barack Obama's first Supreme Court nominee, Sonia Sotomayor, begin today. The hearings are unlikely, however, to produce a great deal of useful information. Since the defeat of Robert Bork -- who had been all too candid about his views on specific constitutional issues, particularly Roe v. Wade, which he would have been the fifth vote to overrule in 1992 had he been confirmed -- successful nominees have mastered the art of sounding smart while saying nothing. As a result, in his very useful recent book about the confirmation process, Christopher Eisgruber persuasively argues that the "Senate should evaluate nominees on the basis of their record and reputation, just as presidents do."
But how to evaluate this record? One method used by political scientists is Segal-Cover scores, which use newspaper editorials to predict the ideological direction of a future justice's votes. Despite the relative simplicity of the method, it's quite effective at predicting future judicial votes. According to her Segal-Cover scores, we should expect Sotomayor to be liberal by the standards of the current Republican-dominated Court, but a moderate liberal by historical standards:
Jeffrey Segal, who helped develop the system for grading nominees' perceived ideological leanings, told NationalJournal.com in early June that Sotomayor would likely have a similar score to Ginsburg -- around 0.68 on the 0-1 scale, with 0 being most conservative. If that's the case, Sotomayor would rank as one of the more liberal judges to be nominated since 1937, but she would hardly approach figures such as William Brennan or Thurgood Marshall, both of whom rate at 1 on the scale. Ginsburg currently ranks as the court's 17th most liberal nominee going back to the FDR administration. The 10 most conservative nominees during that period include four current justices: Antonin Scalia (he tops the list with a score of 0), Samuel Alito (0.10), Chief Justice John Roberts (0.12) and Clarence Thomas (0.16). Former Chief Justice William Rehnquist comes in third, with a score of 0.05, and President Reagan's failed nominee Robert Bork is up there as well, with a score of 0.10.
To reiterate what I said in my last post, I don't mean to suggest that Segal-Cover scores can, in themselves, provide all the necessary information. Dichotomous characterizations of Supreme Curt decisions leave out many possible nuances in individual cases, and how a justice is perceived before his or her hearings is a good but far from perfect indicator. Still, these scores have been useful in the past, and are likely to provide more useful information about Sotomayor than the hearings == at least if she's been well-coached.
This blog post has been prescient. The Sotomayor hearings have played out exactly as described here. However, I'm afraid that none of the senators have seemed very interested in truly evaluating her record. They preened for key interest groups and fished for memorable sound bites.
Nevertheless, thanks for pointing to the Segal-Cover scores-- interesting stuff.
Posted by: Larry Baker | July 18, 2009 at 11:28 PM
The S/C for Stevens and Souter didn't work well.
Posted by: Joe | August 06, 2009 at 06:27 PM
I cite this post at The Faculty Lounge: http://www.thefacultylounge.org/2009/08/sotomayor.html
Would love to have your comment about Sotomayor's scores, and the Segal-Cover system generally - as you can see we're unsure about some specifics.
Thanks, Kathy Bergin
Posted by: firstamendmentblogger | August 07, 2009 at 02:40 PM
very informational... educative as well, i read and felt like reading over and over again....good job!
Posted by: Acai Optimum | March 24, 2010 at 09:58 PM
ddoggeeiyu
Posted by: Rolex Day-Date President | March 29, 2010 at 05:02 AM
We’re always on the go trying to accomplish so much, aren’s we? Getting groceries, cleaning the house, mowing the lawn - there’s always something. It’s so easy to get caught up in everyday life that we forget how simple it can be to bring cheer to ourselves and others.
Posted by: coach sale | July 07, 2010 at 02:53 AM
Well don't know whats going on but its not a Good way to do this. in my opinion we have to look again about this issue
Posted by: company logo design | July 15, 2010 at 06:13 AM
Jimmy Choo's beginnings can be traced back to his workshop in London Borough of Hackney, North London, which he opened in 1986 by renting an old hospital building.
Posted by: jimmy choo | October 14, 2010 at 11:55 PM
I think it is really remarkable what modern day medicine can do. I beleive in staying in the best shape for as long as we live. I know a little about HGH but, can you only take it by injection? Keep up the good work, Great article!
Posted by: Replica handbags china | October 18, 2010 at 10:55 AM
From what you wrote, I think you are a very talented person
Posted by: Chanel replica | November 10, 2010 at 08:28 AM
Lots of specialists say that mortgage loans help people to live their own way, because they can feel free to buy necessary goods. Furthermore, a lot of banks present financial loan for different classes of people.
Posted by: ElinorCohen30 | December 04, 2010 at 04:10 PM
The best way to cheer yourself up is to try to cheer somebody else up.
Posted by: Air Jordan | February 22, 2011 at 11:23 AM
The best way to cheer yourself up is to try to cheer somebody else up.
Posted by: Air Jordan | February 22, 2011 at 11:23 AM
The best way to cheer yourself up is to try to cheer somebody else up.
Posted by: Air Jordan | February 22, 2011 at 11:23 AM
Hola,
Ha hecho un trabajo muy bueno. Hay muchas personas en busca de eso ahora van a encontrar suficientes fuentes por tus consejos.
espera para obtener más consejos acerca de que
Posted by: Careprost | March 10, 2011 at 02:12 AM
enjoy your site very much! THANK YOU
Posted by: Acai BURN | June 26, 2011 at 02:11 PM
Various people in every country get the credit loans from various creditors, because it's simple.
Posted by: home loans | December 20, 2011 at 01:23 PM