More Evidence on the Palin Effect

By Scott Lemieux

Last year, I discussed some political science research indicating that, contrary to past findings that vice presidential candidates have little effect on electoral outcomes, John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin actually had a significant (and, as it happens, negative) effect on his campaign. A new paper by Roy Ellis, D. Sunshine Hillygus, and Norman Nie also found using a different methodology that Palin's selection had an unusually significant effect on outcome of the 2008 election:

In this paper, we leverage a 10-wave election panel to examine the relative and dynamic effects of voter evaluations of Bush, Palin, Biden, McCain, and Obama in the 2008 presidential election. We show that the effects of these political figures on vote choice evolves through the campaign, with the predictive effects of President Bush declining after the nominees are known, and the effects of the candidates (and Palin), increasing towards Election Day. In evaluating the relative effects of these political figures on individual-level changes in vote choice during the fall campaign, we also find that evaluations of the candidates and Sarah Palin dwarf that of President Bush. Our results suggest a Bayesian model of voter decision making in which retrospective evaluations of the previous administration might provide a starting point for assessing the candidates, but prospective evaluations based on information learned during the campaign helps voters to update their candidate preference. Finally, we estimate the “Palin effect,” based on individual-level changes in favorability towards the vice-presidential nominee, and conclude that her campaign performance cost McCain just under 2% of the final vote share.

The paper's other conclusions -- which suggest that the 2008 candidates had a larger effect on the outcome of the election than much past research has indicated -- is also worth reading. If Palin did have a negative effect, this is worth keeping in mind should she be the 2012 Republican nominee. It is also important, however, to remember that unless her effect as a presidential candidate was much larger Palin is definitely capable of winning a presidential election in the right circumstances. It is unusual for a presidential election to be decided by 2 points or fewer, so even relatively large candidate effects are usually swamped by more fundamental factors (such as the state of the economy.) It is also possible that some of Palin's negative impact as a presidential candidate, if it exists, could be mitigated by a greater ability to motivate the Republican base.

Comments

[Bob O'H]

If Palin had been running for president in 2008, wouldn't her personal effect have been bigger than 2%?

[Kevin]

Seems a little low. I think it was more like 10% This seems like pretty flimsy math.

[Kenzie]

Palin is definitely well known and probably go pretty far in the next presidential campaign, but she is known negatively and positively which could hurt her. I guess we'll just have to see how it all pans out!

[ffxiv gil]

The study's findings - which show that in 2008 more than the election of candidates on a number of previous results show that the greater influence - is also worth reading. If Palin does have a negative impact, it is worth remembering that she should be the 2012 Republican presidential candidate.I like it.

[Carly Becker]

So far in this course I have learned a lot of information about how our government developed and currently is today.

[Ashley Seefeldt]

So far in this course I have learned alot about our government and how important politics are.

[Michael]

Maybe, but to me she did not seem to be a good candidate or "agent" as in the principal-agent relationship. I would not want her as my representative, but that's just my opinion.

[Eric Pearson]

I believe Palin is definitely capable of winning a presidential election 2012. That is under the right circumstances.

Eric Pearson
http://www.washingtonpoliticsnews.com

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[ClubPenguin]

I would not want her as my representative, but that's just my opinion.

[ClubPenguin]

If Palin did have a negative effect, this is worth keeping in mind should she be the 2012 Republican nominee.

[ClubPenguin]

I think it was more like 10% This seems like pretty flimsy math.

[Jennifer Harvey]

Sarah Palin is Alaska's governor. When it comes to Federalism, she knows the facts and regulations to the local and state governments, as well as the National level of government. When a person is well versed on all three levels of government, it is harder for mistakes to occur and conflicts to slip through the cracks. To add, the failing economy may have played a role in the outcomes, zooming in on Sarah Palin and her role in the presidental election. Democratics took a higher percentage in the USA. Furthermore, redistributive tax policies are highly favored by Democrats. Moreover, I think that part of it still has to do with Identity Politics, with Sarah Palin as a girl. She would've been the first female Vice President. Overall, I believe that these are all reasons that John McCain and Sarah Palin lost the election, but in the same way, I believe that these are the reasons that John McCain hired her as his Vice President.

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For me Sarah Palin has more positive points than the negative which werte quoted. Besides her long experince in politicts might play key role in the future campagne.

[James Horst]

Throughout this course I have learned what the government does in order to prevent chaos and corruption, such as "providing for the general welfare" with public goods, and that politics are everywhere, in the city, your home, on TV, the newspaper, everywhere. You can't really completely escape politics and what goes on in it.